2025 marked a turning point. After years of inertia, the IPO market returned to normalcy, M&A activity in Europe spiked by over 50%, and the "Magnificent 7" continued their relentless march.

But beneath the record highs of the S&P 500, the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.

In his latest report, "Venture Capital & the world it lives in", Notion Capital General Partner Jos White breaks down the new reality of the ecosystem from the explosion of AI funding to the changing unit economics of software.

Inside the report, you’ll discover:

• The AI "Leaky Bucket" Problem: AI companies are reaching $100M ARR in half the time of traditional SaaS, but they are battling gross margins below 50% and customer churn rates of 20% per month.

• Europe’s Strategic Split: While the US poured over $150bn into AI infrastructure in 2025, Europe invested less than $10bn. Is Europe conceding strategic power, or is its dominance in the "App Layer" a winning strategy?.

• The Return of Liquidity: US Tech IPOs raised $22bn in 2025, and unlike the SPAC boom of 2021, post-IPO performance for companies like Rubrik and Coreweave has been overwhelmingly positive.

What’s coming in 2026? The report concludes with 8 bold predictions, including major IPOs from Stripe and SpaceX, increasing struggles for OpenAI against vertically integrated giants, and a continued bifurcation of valuations based on AI adoption.

As Jos White puts it, "One thing is for sure and that is 2026 will not be boring!"

Take a look at the report and download your copy here.

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